How to Invest Your Portfolio in a Market Bubble
February 12, 2021
Dominick Paoloni, CIMA®
CIO & Founder
Portfolio Manager, IPSAX
Adjunct Professor, University of Denver
& University of Colorado
George Soros, the Portfolio Manager of the infamous Quantum Hedge Fund boasts, “When I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it.” Soros is known for his legendary market returns achieved by investing in bubbles and getting out before they burst. Soros uses what he calls reflexivity theory, which states that investors do not base their decisions on reality, but rather on their perceptions of reality. As a seasoned financial professional, and professor at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado, I teach behavioral finance. Behavioral finance is simply the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of investors. In behavioral finance, the concept of the reflexivity theory is referred to as “herd mentality.”
The secret to Soros’s success is not necessarily recognizing a bubble and investing in it. His secret is in getting out before the bubble bursts. Many of the world’s top money managers and business leaders have argued that the market today is in bubble territory, as valuations reach all-time highs. This uncertainty has led advisors and investors to move trillions of dollars into cash. Bloomberg has pointed out there is over $4.3 trillion being held in money markets, the highest total since the credit crisis of 2008*. The extraordinary bounce off the March bottom has left many advisors and investors who moved into cash or debt in a quagmire. As the market rallies to new records by the day, should cash holdings be moved back into equities, or is it more prudent to wait until the bubble bursts?
The problem with waiting for a bubble to burst is you could be sitting on the sidelines for a long time, missing out on the upside participation. I am reminded of the 2000’s real estate bubble, which was sounding alarm bells as early as 2005 only to burst 3 years later. Where does this leave the average pension, endowment, advisor, or investor if you don’t have the skill or resources of George Soros?
Hedging with defined Risk tools is the solution
If the money manager could protect a portfolio using defined risk tools with an acceptable cost to carry, this would solve the advisor’s greatest dilemma: when should you be aggressive, and when should you be conservative? What if you could be agnostic to economic, geopolitical, technical, or fundamental changes in the markets? You could then invest in bubbles without fear of missing the inflection point, which Soros identifies as his exit point.
IPS Strategic Capital Hedging Solutions
Options enable us to invest agnostically, through the mastery of exchange-traded options to define and hedge risk, a difficult proposition. To quote the world-renowned risk analyst and statistician, Dr. Nassim Taleb, “most people think they can call their broker, buy some puts and it’s done. It’s actually much much harder than that..” It is easy for an advisor to buy a protective put and understand that if the market goes down, the protective put will make money. What makes using long optionality to hedge and manage risk difficult is the countless hours of mathematics, and decades of execution experience that goes into determining when, where, and how to position the options. Hedging in a cost-effective way to maximize upside participation while still providing significant protection against the left tail when the market turns is paramount to risk management. At IPS Strategic Capital, we believe our hedging solutions have solved this dilemma.
Options used correctly deliver strong asymmetry
The IPS Bear Strategy has proven to be a great overlay within a portfolio framework. Through the COVID drawdown, a small allocation (appx. 5% of the portfolio) to the IPS Bear Strategy as illustrated in the table below, reduced the market drawdown in the S&P 500 from 34.4% to 10.8%. This real data demonstrates how a di minimis allocation to IPS Bear strategy facilitated outperformance the of the S&P 500 by over 15%.
While reducing drawdown with optionality (protective puts) in down markets is to be expected, the real edge in the IPS Bear Strategy is the low-cost of deployment coupled with excellent upside participation typically hindered by traditional hedging vehicles like bonds.
Diversification has proven to reduce the upside more than it protects on the downside. For example, the 60% S&P 500 and 40% Barclay Agg saw a 17.6% drawdown through the March drawdown. This asymmetrical risk/reward inherently provided when using options correctly is not possible with any other investment vehicle.
So, how can you prudently invest in a market bubble going forward? You can have the limitless resources and experience pool of a George Soros, or, you can easily add a rules-based option overlay strategy like the IPS Bear Strategy into any portfolio framework. Regardless, if you see a bubble, rush in and buy it, but only if you are properly hedged.
Dominick Paoloni, CIMA is a member of the OIC Advisory Council and the TD Ameritrade Trading Panel. Mr.Paoloni guides future professionals as an Adjunct Professor at the University of Denver and the University of Colorado. He is a published author and is frequently quoted in financial journals and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Please note that the information contained in this piece is intended for investment professionals. This information should not be misconstrued as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Any performance contained in this article is strictly informational and is not necessarily indicative of the future performance of investments. Past performance is not indicative of future investment performance and investors should always consult a financial professional prior to making any investment decisions.
The performance of the IPS Bear Strategy is representative of the performance of the IPS Bear Strategy composite. This composite is managed via separately managed accounts. The performance data is shown net of fees. The performance of the accounts comprising the IPS Bear Strategy was scaled to a 20% exposure to represent a hypothetical portfolio that was invested 80% to the S&P 500 and 20% to the IPS Bear Strategy. This is purely a hypothetical portfolio that is intended to illustrate how the IPS Bear Strategy can be combined with equity exposure to provide reduced drawdown and volatility. Any performance relating to the S&P 500 is representative of the price returns of the index. Please note that the S&P 500 is an index and therefore not a directly investable asset.
The IPS Bear Strategy trades options contracts on the S&P 500 index. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must read a copy of the Characteristics & Risks of Standardized Options. Put options give the purchaser the right, not the obligation, to sell a specified number of shares of the underlying security at a specified date in the future. The seller of a put option has the obligation, not the right, to have a number of shares delivered to them at a specified price at a specified date in the future in exchange for receiving a premium upfront for the risk.
The results shown here are strictly for informational and educational purposes. All investments have the potential for profit and the potential risk of loss. Changes in investment strategies, contributions, or withdrawals may cause the performance results of one’s portfolio to differ materially from the reported composite performance. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s portfolio. One should always consult an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.